Russia’s Unclenched Fist

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The Russian invasion of Georgia was a wakeup call to policy makers across the United States, Europe and Central Asia. Russia never ceased to be a region of extreme concern, but other countries—Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea—have dominated headlines and discussions recently.

The incoming Obama administration, which plans to depart heavily from the policies of the previous administration, has inspired speculation across Washington on what the future of U.S. policy in all areas should involve. U.S. policy toward Russia is no exception. Experts gathered this week at a conference hosted by the American Foreign Policy Council to discuss the changing nature of our relationship to Russia and what Obama should know, say and do to improve that relationship.

The major concern at the conference was the instability between Russia and its neighbors, which has become increasingly intense. To a degree, U.S. policy toward Russia will be determined by how willing it is to cooperate with the former Soviet states.

Herman Pirchner, President of the American Foreign Policy Council, discussed the question of where American and Russian interests will align in the coming years. “The short answer is, we don’t know because of the unstable relationship between Russia and the territories of its former empire. Some experts thought that this was a settled question, and they were shocked when force was used in Georgia. And they were shocked at the recent dispute with Ukraine. They should not have been shocked. They should not be shocked when similar things happen in the future.”

Russian responses to its neighbors over various disputes in recent years have highlighted the willingness of Former President Vladimir Putin to reassert Russia’s influence over the region. The attack on Georgia and the gas conflict with Ukraine are only two of the most recent examples. Russia has antagonized other neighbors who are seeking closer ties to the West through NATO membership, and is even accused of launching a cyber attack on Estonia in 2007. Pirchner offered a realist approach to these conflicts, admitting that it may become necessary to make concessions to Russia in order to see our regional goals realized.

Steven Pifer of The Brookings Institution agreed that the main area of concern for U.S.-Russia relations is how the U.S. interacts with Russia’s neighbors. However, he added that the U.S. could gain from releasing some of the pressure on Russia’s neighbors. Referring to the states of the former Soviet Union he said, “The U.S. should support the territorial integrity of those countries, and we also should support their right as sovereign states to define their own foreign policy. That includes deciding their own choices about alliance associations that they may wish to pursue.”

“It is not in the American interest and it is not in the interest of the West to allow Russia to draw some sort of a red line that says post-Soviet space is consigned to a Russian geopolitical organ.”

Pifer went on to discuss the role of NATO in diplomacy between Russia and the West. He pointed out that Russia considers NATO a threat, and that it will be very difficult to change this perception. It would be especially hard if the U.S. encourages non-members to seek NATO membership.

Americans understand Russian aggression toward its neighbors as a series of moves to consolidate the former Soviet powers, and rightly so. But many Americans question internal Russian politics, and how stable the relationship is between the masses and the leaders. By many measures Russia is drifting away from democracy, reverting to politics characteristic of the Soviet era.

What many Americans fail to understand is that terms like “democracy” and “communism” often mean little to the Russians. More important words are “power,” “influence,” and “greatness,” and the feeling that Russia is again moving toward its position as a respected world player. Russia has a proud heritage that it is eager to live up to, and an embedded desire to see the return of the great Russian state.

Wayne Merry, a senior associate at the American Foreign Policy Council, explained this sentiment. He said, “When Putin looks back nostalgically at the Soviet Union, neither he nor any of his colleagues ever mentions communism. This is not about ideology…What these people look back on is the Russian state, its status and its greatness—past and future. This is extremely important to the people who rule Russia today.” Russian aggression toward its neighbors stems from this vision of the renewal of the great Russian state.

It is unknown how important a priority Russia and Central Asia are on President Obama’s to-do list. What is certain, however, is that Putin is not waiting to find out what Obama’s policies are—he has a mission of his own.

Daniel Allen is an intern at the American Journalism Center, a training program run by Accuracy in Media and Accuracy in Academia.