A World At Risk

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In an increasingly global world, the threats facing the U.S. and its allies are more interconnected than ever. Incoming President Barack Obama’s to-do list should be both long and complex.

This week at the Brookings Institution, experts gathered to discuss some of the major issues that President Obama should expect to see over the next four years. The first was the resurgence of al-Qaeda and the continued activity of Osama bin Laden, who presumably is able to command al-Qaeda cells in the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere.

Bruce Riedel, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, discussed a smug, 22 minute audio clip released by al-Qaeda’s leader on Wednesday which Riedel called bin Laden’s “transition memo” to President-elect Obama. “Osama bin Laden declared war on Barack Hussein Obama and his administration,” Riedel explains. He continues. “Osama bin Laden noted that it has now been seven years since the war began on September 11th, 2001, and he said that al-Qaeda and its allies and friends from the global jihad are prepared to continue for another seven years and another seven and another seven after that.”

Bin Laden has reason to be smug not only because of global economic hardship, which he sees as evidence of the West’s decline, but also because of the attacks in Mumbai by an al-Qaeda ally and the Gaza-Israel conflict which has given bin Laden renewed purpose.

On what Obama should do about combating the al-Qaeda jihad, Riedel says, “What the United States needs… is an integrated grand strategy.” Such a strategy, he goes on to explain, would bring together all of the components of American power and those of our allies, “not just military, not just intelligence, not just law enforcement, but military, economic, political and diplomatic power in order to undercut the narrative and the message of al-Qaeda.”

Perhaps the one threat that worries people more than terrorism is nuclear proliferation, which Obama will almost certainly have to deal with extensively. Michael O’Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, discussed the likelihood of a nuclear Iran during Obama’s term. He said, “Nuclear technology is all over the world and it will continue to be. That is a premise that we are going to have to accept and deal with in our non-proliferation agenda. We obviously have huge challenges. If I were to identify one that I think is as hard as any for President-elect Obama to deal with, it would be Iran’s future as a likely nuclear weapons state during his presidency.”

O’Hanlon also emphasized the need to engage other countries in efforts to solve immediate crises and discuss long-term solutions. He and his colleagues cited many of the major issues that President Obama will have to deal with. Among these issues were regional conflict in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa, humanitarian concerns, Russian aggression toward missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic, climate change and North Korea.

Carlos Pascual, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at Brookings, discussed the integral need for a President at this time who understands the interrelated nature of each of these threats. He and his colleagues observed that it would be a mistake to single out and try to resolve any issue without serious concern for how other interests will be affected. For example, efforts to resolve conflict between nations in the Middle East may change the goals and targets of terrorist groups. Likewise, our approach to missile defense against Russia’s wishes may affect the willingness of Moscow to work with the U.S. on questions of climate control, non-proliferation and counter-terrorism.

“To solve these kinds of problems, no one nation can do it alone,” says Pascual. “In order to succeed, the challenge that President Barack Obama faces is that he has to redefine the concept of American leadership. This means that the United States is not leading by acting alone, is not leading by being at the front of the pack, but by looking to create a common vision, a shared vision, and building international partnerships.”

No one ever told President-elect Obama that his presidency would be easy, but ready or not, on January 20th a nation and a global community will rely on Obama to understand the intricacies of a world full of problems and find a shared vision.

Daniel Allen is an intern at the American Journalism Center, a training program run by Accuracy in Media and Accuracy in Academia.