It is very clear that Iraq will be a major part of the inheritance of the next U.S. president whether that chief executive is a Republican or Democrat.
Speaking at a discussion forum dubbed Reporting on the Report; Assessing Progress in Iraq, on Thursday September 13th, Michele Flournoy, President of Center for New American Security argued that the next President will be faced with a messy Iraq, probably with increased tensions within Iraq and in the region. “There is need to develop a truly inter-agency strategy and plan for post-surge Iraq” she said.
It should be noted that there were increased tensions in the room where she spoke as well when anti-war protestors tried to disrupt the forum.
Flournoy pointed out that the surge will come to a natural end with a gradual decline of troops sometime from March to next summer. She said “what we are seeing at the Capitol Hill is highly stylized predictable form of political theatre with everyone playing their cards.”
She dismissed the current debates on the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Iraq saying that “many of the strategic contours of what is going to happen in the next years are increasingly fixed. She explained that the U.S. military doesn’t have capacity to sustain the current troop levels in Iraq past the spring of 2008 unless the President either extends tours (which have already been extended) beyond 15 months to 18 months for Army Brigade combat teams or the President calls up substantial numbers of reserve units (who have already seen combat tours in Iraq).
Iran factor
Iran is increasingly becoming a major factor in the Iraq equation with many commentators stressing the need to stop Iran’s influence in Iraq. Presenting his assessment of General Petraeus’ report, Kirk A. Johnson, a former Deputy Director of Assessments at the U.S. embassy in Iraq noted that Iran remains a destabilizing force in Iraq. “Iran is determined to undermine U.S. and Coalition Forces efforts by providing arms and training to insurgents to attack Coalition Forces and civilians,” he said.
To elaborate on the Iran factor, Mr. Federick Kagan of American Enterprise Institute noted that current United States’ interests in Iraq are
(a) to prevent Al Qaeda from establishing a strong foothold in Iraq
(b) to prevent Iran from establishing hegemony in the Middle East and
(c) to establish a stable, legitimate Iraq government.
He added that this last objective is dependent on the means by which the first two are achieved. He also indicated that General Petraeus’ recommendations will be accepted by the President and the Congress is not going to derail it because those who would like to derail don’t have the votes.
Emmanuel Opati is an intern at the American Journalism Center, a training program run by Accuracy in Media and Accuracy in Academia.
