The upcoming presidential election in November has vital impact on the strength of U.S.-China relations given the conflict of interest regarding Taiwan. The small island remains the single most contentious issue between the U.S. and China, with U.S. policy quietly supporting the tiny democracy and Red China aiming missiles at Taiwan’s shores.
The previous 2008 presidential election in Taiwan and the upcoming 2008 presidential election in the U.S. guarantees change in the fragile, carefully-preserved status quo among the three nations. In Taiwan, the election of Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT marked a change in policy from the preceding Chen administration, infamous for its antagonistic relationship with the Mainland.
Yet despite the advancement of the soft-treading KMT, foreign policy experts continue to predict a catastrophic conflict between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. Ted Galen Carpenter, vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, said the following:
“Ma’s victory has probably postponed the day of reckoning… but we have to be realistic about it. It is just a postponement… America would still be caught in the middle of any cross-strait conflict, whenever that occurs.”
Carpenter, author of America’s Coming War with China, had an equally ominous forecast for relations post-election:
“This time around there is a greater likelihood of a real policy shift with the incoming administration. That is especially true if Senator [John] McCain wins the presidency. That means a rockier period in U.S.-China relations ahead… The emergence of more tensions and probably more animosity, more name-calling going back and forth across the Pacific. That is unfortunate because the Chinese relationship is very important for the United States…”
Justin Logan, associate director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, agreed with Carpenter’s prediction, but queried as to the depth of the disagreement, and stated:
“I do think that some conflict will be unavoidable, there will be sort of friction points as China’s rise continues—which I believe it will. The question is, how grave will be that conflict? And how much of that conflict will be between China and the United States?”
Both men were skeptical at the chance of a reunification between Taiwan and China because of the decades of hostility between the two nations. Given Barack Obama’s emphasis on change and McCain’s stress on security, America’s delicate positioning between the two conflicting countries could be thrown off balance following the presidential election. Yet according to Carpenter, “If we get the China relationship wrong, we are going to pay a fearsome price for decades to come.”
Rachel Paulk is an intern at the American Journalism Center, a training program run by Accuracy in Media and Accuracy in Academia.
