Resetting Russia’s Button

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Earlier this month Vice President Joseph Biden said that the time has come to “press the reset button” on U.S.-Russia relations. Critics argue, however, that hitting the reset button with Russia is naïve and probably impossible, keeping in mind the long, troubled history of U.S.-Russia relations. The Obama administration has yet to make any significant policy moves toward Russia, despite its activity since President Obama’s election. The Brookings Institution gathered a panel of experts on February 19th to discuss what Russia’s motives are and how the U.S. should respond.

Steven Pifer, a visiting fellow at Brookings, explained that with its new economic and political world standing, Russia has the clout to exert its influence in Asia and Eastern Europe again. “First and foremost” on Vladimir Putin’s agenda, according to Pifer, is “recovering the power that was lost in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union.” Combined with this desire is a feeling that “the West, and the United States in particular, took advantage of Russian weakness in the 1990s.” Russian leaders and citizens share this opinion.

Pifer explained that Russia’s foreign policy operates from a set of specific wants. For one, Russia does not want advice from the U.S. on how to control its domestic or foreign relations. They also want to control what they call a “privileged sphere of influence” over their neighbors of the former Soviet Union. “It’s not about restoring the Soviet Union, but it is about seeking deference from those neighbors to what Russia determines are its vital interests.”

Pifer sees two possibilities for the future of U.S.-Russia relations. “One is that the Kremlin might choose to strengthen this adversary image that it has created in Washington over the last several years.” This option is helpful to Russia’s leaders because it distracts the populace from what is actually going on in Russian politics—people are losing freedoms and the economy is taking heavy hits.

“The alternative view is that Russian leaders are going to conclude that a calmer international context and a better relationship with the United States and the West will make it easier for them to focus on their very difficult situation at home.”

Also participating on the panel was Robert Kagan of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the author of The Return of History and the End of Dreams. Kagan, both in his recent book and during the discussion, expressed the need to resist Russian attempts to reassert its influence in Central Asia and Eastern Europe.

Kagan highlighted the Russian invasion of Georgia as an example of the dangers presented by allowing Russia to make waves in the region unchecked, and how it may not be desirable or even possible to hit a “reset button.” If the invasion is to go unanswered, “the message will be that Russia paid no price” for the invasion. He said, “The paying of no price for some action like that has, I think, rather serious implications for Russian behavior in the years to come.”

As he expanded on the need to confront Russia on issues like Georgia, and its past conflicts with Ukraine and Estonia, Kagan emphasized the importance of understanding Russian foreign policy generally. He discerned, “Russian behavior is driven primarily by Russian ambition. Particularly, I think, Putin’s Russian ambition.” This ambition stems from a desire to return the Russian state to the power it enjoyed in the time of the Russian Empire or the Cold War.

Russia presents an important but problematic situation, not only because it is ambitious, but because it is aggressive. Kagan described Russia as a child at school who keeps getting into fights. There are always two kids involved in the fight, so it is tempting to spread the blame, but the one common factor in every fight is Russia. This type of aggression “we need to resist. And we need to resist it with some firmness, and not worry that the problem is our circle rather than Russian ambition,” Kagan said.

What Putin plans next for Russia is unknown, but many expect him to continue to push Russia’s influence, if not its borders, further outward. According to Robert Kagan, it must be U.S. policy to resist these attempts. He concluded, “We can reach out and negotiate with Russia when we need to, but have the appropriate level of firmness in response to this Russian desire to reestablish its global hegemony.”

Daniel Allen is an intern at the American Journalism Center, a training program run by Accuracy in Media and Accuracy in Academia.