Virtual Graduation Rates

It’s common knowledge that many
states aren’t straight shooters when it comes to reporting
high school graduation rates. All too often, grade inflation
rules the day, making a mockery of federal accountability
provisions and masking our dropout problem. U.S. Secretary of
Education Margaret Spellings has had it with state
obfuscation, and is upping the ante with threats of a new
federal mandate.

In an interview with the Associated Press last week, Spellings cited
a need for “truth in advertising,” critiquing slipshod
graduation formulas replete with inaccuracies and distortions.
Federal intervention may be imminent if Congress doesn’t move
to force state fixes to our data debacle, warned Spellings.


Spellings’ comments come on the heels of a
highly-publicized Johns Hopkins study calling one out of every
10 U.S. high schools a “dropout factory.” Not surprisingly, the
factory label was most repugnant to those who actually earned
it, prompting charges of faulty data; interestingly, some North
Carolina high schools on the dreaded list received high marks
for graduation rates on recently-released state report cards.

Clearly, then, North
Carolina’s graduation formula still has some kinks; even with
its flaws, though, it’s a huge improvement over past data. The
state released its first four-year cohort graduation rate in February, 2007, tracking
students who entered in ninth grade and left with a diploma
four years later. Thus configured, our overall graduation rate
is now 69.5 percent – in line with independent,
credible estimates. Prior to implementing cohort
data, North Carolina reported implausibly high graduation
rates of up to 97 percent (.pdf), eliciting derision and
disbelief from outside researchers.

Fortunately, about
12 states in all have embarked on efforts to revamp graduation
rate calculations. New methodologies reflect state attempts to
make good on a compact signed by the nation’s governors in
2005 to implement a “standard, four-year adjusted cohort
graduation rate.”

Still, too many states continue to
cling to the beguiling comfort of inflated graduation rates. In a 2006
interview on National Public Radio, Alliance for Excellent Education President
Bob Wise noted, “There are some states that have found
literally over 20 ways to take somebody out of that
calculation,” in their attempt to sugarcoat graduation
numbers.

Why are states so disinclined to embrace
reality? One reason is that the federal No Child Left
Behind (NCLB) law requires states to report graduation
data as a measure of adequate yearly progress. Faced with the
prospect of federal sanctions, many states have chosen to
shade the truth.

Current Congressional proposals to
reauthorize NCLB would tighten school accountability for
graduation performance, but prospects for the law’s renewal
this year are dim. Legislative modifications to NCLB will
likely have to wait until 2008.

What should we do?
Spellings rightly diagnoses our need for reliable, consistent
data in the form of cohort graduation rates. States have
already promised to do this, and they all need to deliver. We
can’t remedy our educational maladies if we don’t know what
they are.

But more top-down, government involvement in
the form of yet another federal mandate is not the answer.
NCLB legislation – though well-intentioned – has already
drastically expanded federal involvement in education,
spawning a host of perverse incentives for states to “game”
the system and whitewash poor performance. This is not
transparency.

If we want states to do a better job with
our high schools, we must first let federalism reign supreme.
Eugene Hickok, a former deputy secretary at
the U.S. Department of Education and key architect of NCLB,
agrees, and is calling for pulling back on high-stakes federal
intrusion and returning policymaking authority to the states.
Doing so, says Hickok, would “protect academic transparency”
on state accountability measures and would “begin to restore
citizen ownership of American education.” In a nation full of
disaffected, disengaged high school students, that’s exactly
what we need.

Kristen Blair is is a fellow at the North Carolina Education Alliance.